Does Eyewitness Confidence Calibration Vary by Target Race?

Abstract

After making a lineup decision, eyewitnesses may be asked to indicate their confidence in their decision. Eyewitness confidence is considered an important reflector of accuracy. Previous studies have considered the confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship—that is, the relationship between participants’ confidence in their lineup decision and the accuracy of that decision. However, the literature is limited and mixed concerning the CA relationship in cross-race scenarios. We considered the CA relationship for White and Asian participants and targets (fully crossed) using sequential lineups. Participants completed four trials (two White targets and two Asian targets). For each trial, they watched a mock-crime video, performed a distractor task, made a sequential lineup decision (target-present or target-absent), and indicated confidence in their lineup decision. White participants had higher identification accuracy with White than Asian targets, while Asian participants were similarly accurate with White and Asian targets. White participants’ confidence was better calibrated for White than Asian targets, except for when they had medium-high confidence (no difference). This finding is not only theoretically relevant—showing support for the optimality hypothesis—but also practically relevant—suggesting that the CA relationship may differ for target races at some levels of confidence.