Near Space Instability. Geopolitical Tensions, Debris Crisis, and Cyberattacks

Abstract

Never before Near Space, that portion of outer space closest to Earth and crucial for human activities, has been under threat like in present days. There are several factors responsible for the current status of things, but three of them (geopolitics, debris and cyberthreats) are emerging as the most critical in terms of impact and long-term implications. What is more important, those factors are now colliding, with state-sponsored cyberattacks in outer space that risks exacerbating the debris crisis. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate how geopolitical tensions are pushing existing criticalities such as the debris crisis in the Earth Orbit and the growing threat of cyberattacks to satellite and ground space infrastructure toward an unprecedent level of tensions. Building on the analysis of existing datasets, it will present some cases for discussion and attempts a scenario analysis for the short-medium term.