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    Estimation of all-cause excess mortality by age-specific mortality patterns for countries with incomplete vital statistics: a population-based study of the case of Peru during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic
    (Elsevier, 2021-08-20) Sempé, Lucas; Lloyd-Sherlock, Peter; Martínez, Ramón; Ebrahim, Shah; McKee, Martin; Acosta, Enrique
    Background All-cause excess mortality is a comprehensive measure of the combined direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 on mortality. Estimates are usually derived from Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) systems, but these do not include non-registered deaths, which may be affected by changes in vital registration coverage over time. Methods Our analytical framework and empirical strategy account for registered mortality and under-registration. This provides a better estimate of the actual mortality impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Peru. We use population and crude mortality rate projections from Peru's National Institute of Statistics and Information (INEI, in Spanish), individual-level registered COVID-19 deaths from the Ministry of Health (MoH), and individual-level registered deaths by region and age since 2017 from the National Electronic Deaths Register (SINADEF, in Spanish). We develop a novel framework combining different estimates and using quasi-Poisson models to estimate total excess mortality across regions and age groups. Also, we use logistic mixed-effects models to estimate the coverage of the new SINADEF system. Findings We estimate that registered mortality underestimates national mortality by 37•1% (95% CI 23% - 48•5%) across 26 regions and nine age groups. We estimate total all-cause excess mortality during the period of analysis at 173,099 (95% CI 153,669 - 187,488) of which 108,943 (95% CI 96,507 - 118,261) were captured by the vital registration system. Deaths at age 60 and over accounted for 74•1% (95% CI 73•9% - 74•7%) of total excess deaths, and there were fewer deaths than expected in younger age groups. Lima region, on the Pacific coast and including the national capital, accounts for the highest share of excess deaths, 87,781 (95% CI 82,294 - 92,504), while in the opposite side regions of Apurimac and Huancavelica account for less than 300 excess deaths. Interpretation Estimating excess mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) such as Peru must take under-registration of mortality into account. Combining demographic trends with data from administrative registries reduces uncertainty and measurement errors. In countries like Peru, this is likely to produce significantly higher estimates of excess mortality than studies that do not take these effects into account.
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    Participation by conflict-affected and forcibly displaced communities in humanitarian healthcare responses: A systematic review
    (Elsevier, 2020-12-09) Rass, Ella; Lokot, Michelle; Brown, Felicity L; Fuhr, Daniela C; Asmar, Michèle Kosremelli; Smith, James; McKee, Martin; Bou-Orm, Ibrahim; Yeretzian, Joumana Stephan; Roberts, Bayard
    Background Community participation in health responses in humanitarian crises is increasingly promoted by humanitarian actors to support adoption of measures that are relevant and effective to local needs. Our aim was to understand the role of community participation in humanitarian health responses for conflict-affected populations (including forcibly displaced populations) in low- and middle-income countries and the barriers and facilitators to community participation in healthcare responses. Methods Using a systematic review methodology, following the PRISMA protocol, we searched four bibliographic databases for publications reporting peer-reviewed primary research. Studies were selected if they reported how conflict-affected populations were involved in healthcare responses in low- and middle-income settings, and associated changes in healthcare responses or health outcomes. We applied descriptive thematic synthesis and assessed study quality using study design-specific appraisal tools. Results Of 18,247 records identified through the database searching, 18 studies met our inclusion criteria. Various types of community participation were observed, with participation mostly involved in implementing interventions rather than framing problems or designing solutions. Most studies on community participation focused on changes in health services (access, utilisation, quality), community acceptability and awareness, and ownership and sustainability. Key barriers and facilitators to community participation included political will at national and local level, ongoing armed conflict, financial and economic factors, socio-cultural dynamics of communities, design of humanitarian responses, health system factors, and health knowledge and beliefs. Included studies were of mixed quality and the overall strength of evidence was weak. More generally there was limited critical engagement with concepts of participation. Conclusion This review highlights the need for more research on more meaningful community participation in healthcare responses in conflict-affected communities, particularly in framing problems and creating solutions. More robust research is also required linking community participation with longer-term individual and health system outcomes, and that critically engages in constructs of community participation.